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He'll need to after a missed cut in Abu Dhabi where he putted terribly. It's well-documented by now that McIlroy struggled when the PGA Tour returned last summer, although it was later revealed that his mind was elsewhere with his wife, Erica, pregnant.

He's since become a dad and whether you want to call it the nappy factor or just focus on the distraction element, the change in his performance level has been marked. Rory hasn't finished worse than 21st in his seven starts since, with four tops. The eight starts from June's resumption to the arrival of his daughter returned zero tops, and he was outside the top 30 six times. Short-game trouble is the statistical explanation for how he played last summer, but I prefer a more subjective one: McIlroy just couldn't get into competition mode, with parenthood on the horizon and no fans at the course to help generate that energy he needs.

On that score, even a few thousand fans in Phoenix is a positive, but the key factors are that he's in a good place mentally and is driving the ball exceptionally again, his iron play has improved, and he's putted well in every single event since his wife gave birth. With his short-game holding its own, he looks back in the sort of form which, don't forget, had seen him win four of his 24 starts before the aborted PLAYERS Championship, hitting the top 10 in 14 more of them.

Scottsdale should be a great fit for McIlroy, especially if he can dial in his irons just a shade. He can go out and attack the course with driver, reducing all three par-fives to a mid-iron and knocking his three-wood onto the driveable 17th.

And while much is made of his approach play - plainly, he's not as good a wedge player as Thomas - his relative struggles are exaggerated by where he is hitting it to. Put another way, it's quite difficult to gain substantial ground with approaches played from ideal positions, but McIlroy with a wedge is going to hit the ball closer than whoever else with a seven-iron.

Having led the field in greens hit last week despite ranking 68th in driving accuracy, he should be able to be more aggressive with his approaches at this easier course, where the greens have been softened by rain in the build-up. As for the surfaces themselves, he said it all himself at Torrey Pines: "I'm looking forward to getting on some truer greens. Returning to the original statement: I think this course is McIlroy's dream. And thankfully, when I shared this idea a couple of years ago, a highly-respected data analyst who worked with Ryder Cup-winning consultants 15th Club at the time revealed that Scottsdale ranked as the number one fit for Rory on the PGA Tour.

Let's hope we're both right. I put up Daniel Berger when last sighted in the Sony Open and he played solid golf for seventh, bemoaning easy conditions which he felt kept him out of contention. Two wins at Southwind and another at Colonial confirm that the Floridian doesn't want a shootout, and the slight toughening of conditions from Waialae to Scottsdale is in his favour, a fact underlined by a strong record here.

Im was the same price as Berger with most firms at the Sony, where he just never got anything going on the greens. As such it was encouraging to hear him talk about a couple of small changes to his set-up and method going into the American Express, where he returned to his best and ranked second in putting. It was disappointing to see him make two huge mistakes in that event, having been atop the leaderboard at halfway, and the same can be said of Sunday's back-nine at Torrey Pines.

Briefly, Im got to within a shot of Patrick Reed, but bogeys at the 10th and 11th halted his progress and a double at the 12th ended his chance altogether. These mistakes are a little troubling from such an assured ball-striker, but closer inspection reveals his downward spiral in the Farmers began with two very short misses on bumpy, poa annua greens.

As will be clear to regular readers by now, the Korean is a significantly better putter on bermuda and, having been compensated with a bigger price, I'm willing to trust him to cut out the errors in his long-game. Matsuyama has to be considered given his flawless Scottsdale record bar withdrawing with an injury in , when he'd made a bright start as defending champion.

Still, he was very disappointing last week, his long-game deserting him, and I can't take six or eight points shorter following a share of 53rd place at a course he does also enjoy. JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Matsuyama are the latest three to take this title more than once, Holmes beating Mickelson in a play-off two years after a seven-shot romp on debut, and Fowler looks to have his game back in the sort of shape required to complete his own double.

He should've won here in , a combination of misfortune, a lack of ruthlessness and Matsuyama confining him to one of the more painful runner-up finishes of his career. And he probably should've won it in , too, when a costly decision to lay-up at the 15th on Sunday saw Hunter Mahan take the title. Fowler then is a course specialist, with a win, two runner-up finishes, fourth and 13th place among his 12 visits. He's carded a round of 62 and even last year, when struggling and defending his title, he responded to a nightmare first-round 74 to shoot and climb to a position of respectability.

It was Fowler's driver which really hurt him in , but he ranked third in the American Express and sixth in the Farmers for his best two-week run since It's a hugely encouraging indicator and with his approach play solid and consistent, this one-time outstanding putter only needs that element to return to start contending once more. Here at Scottsdale, where he's led the field in putting on two occasions and has been inside the top 10 on four more, Fowler should leave behind a terrible display 70th of 79 on the bumpy greens of Torrey Pines, where he has struggled badly for a long time now.

In contrast he's gained strokes on these greens six years running and if he extends that to seven, while continuing to drive the ball so well, he has every chance. Four of Fowler's five PGA Tour wins have been on bermuda greens, as was his correlating victory in Abu Dhabi on the European Tour, and he signed off the Farmers with two quality approach shots to set up close-range birdies.

If he can get off to a good start on Thursday, I can see his confidence returning very quickly. For one reason or another, that course has seldom witnessed a first-time winner, with Rahm the only recent exception, so to finish inside the top 10 was a massive effort for this outstanding youngster. That's why I'm a little surprised he's only had his odds trimmed, rather than slashed, as Scottsdale has been much more open to a breakout performance such as those produced by Brooks Koepka, Holmes and Stanley in recent years.

In , Nate Lashley took third on debut, matching Louis Oosthuizen's performance in , and there's nothing all that complicated about the challenge here. Zalatoris should find the course to his liking, especially having won at altitude in Colorado on the Korn Ferry Tour and finished fifth in the Nevada desert at TPC Summerlin, where Simpson, Fowler, Koepka and plenty of other Phoenix champions go particularly well.

Crucially, Zalatoris has already established himself as a world-class iron player. He's probably second only to Thomas in this field the stats would say third, Russell Henley being right up there too , and if we do see another champion who leads the way with his approaches, he's an obvious candidate. With top-eight finishes in four of his seven starts on the PGA Tour dating back to the US Open, where he was sixth, he looks ready to win.

Zalatoris appears to be of similar quality and this looks set to be a really good course for his abundant power and elite approach work. As ever I've had a good look at some of those on offer at massive prices, but as none make the staking plan I'll spin through the pick of them. Matt NeSmith is a rock-solid ball-striker in the Stadler mould, he was eighth at Summerlin, and his approach play was really good again last week.

He's respected along with Robby Shelton, who I really like, and who has shown flashes of what he can do over the last six to nine months. Tee times will be announced Tuesday, June As with anything, research goes a long way to setting yourself up for success, and there are many tools available for golf bettors. But conditions are often similar across all US Open venues.

Courses are long and golfers will need to either be able to avoid trouble or quickly recover, and putting is essential. Current Form looks at how well a golfer has been playing coming into an event. This can be dangerous as runs of success or struggles can begin and end without any notice. Each course will have a set of Key Stats best associated with success there.

Be sure to look into which shot type a course favors and what type of grass is on the greens. Be sure to closely monitor the futures US Open odds throughout the months and weeks leading up to an event. Take screenshots of the opening odds and always compare against those in order to target favorites who may see their numbers temporarily rise due to a run of poor results or a lack of betting action. Majors are tough to win, and not everyone can do it. While the outright odds carry the hopes of the biggest pay days, the safe money is made on the props, matchups and placing bets.

Be sure to devote the largest portion of your bankroll here. Simpson is coming off arguably the most successful year of his career to creep inside the top 10 of the world rankings. He ranked 72nd in the world at the time. Cabrera seems to be much better remembered for his Masters win than for his breakthrough one stroke victory over Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk at Oakmont Country Club. Cabrera rarely played in the United States outside of majors but ranked 39th in the world before his win vaulted him to 17th.

Ogilvy ranked 17th in the world and had two wins under his belt at the time of his first major victory, including the Accenture Match Play earlier in Campbell had 10 professional wins prior to his two-stroke victory over Woods at Pinehurst but ranked just 80th in the world. Ouimet would go on to win the US Amateur in and They must make it through both local and sectional qualifying. Additional criteria are as follows:.

Koepka and Rory McIlroy share the honor for the lowest score ever to win a US Open at minus in and , respectively. Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera each shot plus-5 in and for the highest winning scores since Brooks Koepka in and was the first since Curtis Strange in and seventh all-time to go back-to-back as US Open champion.

Outright Winner. Dustin Johnson. Jon Rahm. Bryson DeChambeau. Rory McIlroy. Justin Thomas. Brooks Koepka. Xander Schauffele. Hideki Matsuyama. Collin Morikawa. Webb Simpson. Patrick Cantlay. Patrick Reed. Tiger Woods. Tony Finau. Tommy Fleetwood. Daniel Berger.

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On that score, even a few thousand fans in Phoenix is a positive, but the key factors are that he's in a good place mentally and is driving the ball exceptionally again, his iron play has improved, and he's putted well in every single event since his wife gave birth. With his short-game holding its own, he looks back in the sort of form which, don't forget, had seen him win four of his 24 starts before the aborted PLAYERS Championship, hitting the top 10 in 14 more of them.

Scottsdale should be a great fit for McIlroy, especially if he can dial in his irons just a shade. He can go out and attack the course with driver, reducing all three par-fives to a mid-iron and knocking his three-wood onto the driveable 17th. And while much is made of his approach play - plainly, he's not as good a wedge player as Thomas - his relative struggles are exaggerated by where he is hitting it to. Put another way, it's quite difficult to gain substantial ground with approaches played from ideal positions, but McIlroy with a wedge is going to hit the ball closer than whoever else with a seven-iron.

Having led the field in greens hit last week despite ranking 68th in driving accuracy, he should be able to be more aggressive with his approaches at this easier course, where the greens have been softened by rain in the build-up. As for the surfaces themselves, he said it all himself at Torrey Pines: "I'm looking forward to getting on some truer greens.

Returning to the original statement: I think this course is McIlroy's dream. And thankfully, when I shared this idea a couple of years ago, a highly-respected data analyst who worked with Ryder Cup-winning consultants 15th Club at the time revealed that Scottsdale ranked as the number one fit for Rory on the PGA Tour.

Let's hope we're both right. I put up Daniel Berger when last sighted in the Sony Open and he played solid golf for seventh, bemoaning easy conditions which he felt kept him out of contention. Two wins at Southwind and another at Colonial confirm that the Floridian doesn't want a shootout, and the slight toughening of conditions from Waialae to Scottsdale is in his favour, a fact underlined by a strong record here.

Im was the same price as Berger with most firms at the Sony, where he just never got anything going on the greens. As such it was encouraging to hear him talk about a couple of small changes to his set-up and method going into the American Express, where he returned to his best and ranked second in putting. It was disappointing to see him make two huge mistakes in that event, having been atop the leaderboard at halfway, and the same can be said of Sunday's back-nine at Torrey Pines.

Briefly, Im got to within a shot of Patrick Reed, but bogeys at the 10th and 11th halted his progress and a double at the 12th ended his chance altogether. These mistakes are a little troubling from such an assured ball-striker, but closer inspection reveals his downward spiral in the Farmers began with two very short misses on bumpy, poa annua greens. As will be clear to regular readers by now, the Korean is a significantly better putter on bermuda and, having been compensated with a bigger price, I'm willing to trust him to cut out the errors in his long-game.

Matsuyama has to be considered given his flawless Scottsdale record bar withdrawing with an injury in , when he'd made a bright start as defending champion. Still, he was very disappointing last week, his long-game deserting him, and I can't take six or eight points shorter following a share of 53rd place at a course he does also enjoy.

JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Matsuyama are the latest three to take this title more than once, Holmes beating Mickelson in a play-off two years after a seven-shot romp on debut, and Fowler looks to have his game back in the sort of shape required to complete his own double. He should've won here in , a combination of misfortune, a lack of ruthlessness and Matsuyama confining him to one of the more painful runner-up finishes of his career.

And he probably should've won it in , too, when a costly decision to lay-up at the 15th on Sunday saw Hunter Mahan take the title. Fowler then is a course specialist, with a win, two runner-up finishes, fourth and 13th place among his 12 visits. He's carded a round of 62 and even last year, when struggling and defending his title, he responded to a nightmare first-round 74 to shoot and climb to a position of respectability. It was Fowler's driver which really hurt him in , but he ranked third in the American Express and sixth in the Farmers for his best two-week run since It's a hugely encouraging indicator and with his approach play solid and consistent, this one-time outstanding putter only needs that element to return to start contending once more.

Here at Scottsdale, where he's led the field in putting on two occasions and has been inside the top 10 on four more, Fowler should leave behind a terrible display 70th of 79 on the bumpy greens of Torrey Pines, where he has struggled badly for a long time now.

In contrast he's gained strokes on these greens six years running and if he extends that to seven, while continuing to drive the ball so well, he has every chance. Four of Fowler's five PGA Tour wins have been on bermuda greens, as was his correlating victory in Abu Dhabi on the European Tour, and he signed off the Farmers with two quality approach shots to set up close-range birdies.

If he can get off to a good start on Thursday, I can see his confidence returning very quickly. For one reason or another, that course has seldom witnessed a first-time winner, with Rahm the only recent exception, so to finish inside the top 10 was a massive effort for this outstanding youngster. That's why I'm a little surprised he's only had his odds trimmed, rather than slashed, as Scottsdale has been much more open to a breakout performance such as those produced by Brooks Koepka, Holmes and Stanley in recent years.

In , Nate Lashley took third on debut, matching Louis Oosthuizen's performance in , and there's nothing all that complicated about the challenge here. Zalatoris should find the course to his liking, especially having won at altitude in Colorado on the Korn Ferry Tour and finished fifth in the Nevada desert at TPC Summerlin, where Simpson, Fowler, Koepka and plenty of other Phoenix champions go particularly well. Crucially, Zalatoris has already established himself as a world-class iron player.

He's probably second only to Thomas in this field the stats would say third, Russell Henley being right up there too , and if we do see another champion who leads the way with his approaches, he's an obvious candidate. With top-eight finishes in four of his seven starts on the PGA Tour dating back to the US Open, where he was sixth, he looks ready to win. Zalatoris appears to be of similar quality and this looks set to be a really good course for his abundant power and elite approach work.

As ever I've had a good look at some of those on offer at massive prices, but as none make the staking plan I'll spin through the pick of them. Matt NeSmith is a rock-solid ball-striker in the Stadler mould, he was eighth at Summerlin, and his approach play was really good again last week.

He's respected along with Robby Shelton, who I really like, and who has shown flashes of what he can do over the last six to nine months. Shelton is plainly more comfortable on bermuda greens so this is as good a test as there is for him on the west coast, a comment which also applies to Keith Mitchell who threatened to land the place money for us in Hawaii a couple of starts back.

The two who I really considered however were Aaron Wise, a good desert player who is getting back to where he belongs and was undone by shocking putting last time, and Wyndham Clark, who has no putting issues, is closing in on his first win, has plenty of experience at altitude, lives in Scottsdale, and opened with a 61 here last year.

Burns has produced some disappointing rounds in contention lately, but the fact that he's been in one of the final two groups off on Sunday in three of his last seven tournaments tells you how close he is to a breakthrough. Hailing from Louisiana, bermuda greens bring out his best and he hit it really well here last year despite missing the cut.

He's second in ball-striking this season, a notable upturn which comes courtesy of hitting far more greens than he did early in his career, and those who want to follow the advice but don't want to back McIlroy - quite a large group, I tend to find - should consider making him the replacement selection.

I've decided, however, to give Koepka the benefit of the doubt at what does appear an enormous price. Johnson made 24 birdies in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, despite arriving full of rust and carrying a cold putter for most of the week. Better can be expected in Saudi Arabia. Lucas Herbert is a rising star who won the Dubai Desert Classic last season and the power-packed Australian can be fancied to go close to more Gulf glory in the Saudi International.

The top European market could be won by Rasmus Hojgaard at a juicy price. The year-old, a prodigy who has already won two Tour titles, produced a strong weekend in the Dubai Desert Classic to finish ninth. Brimming with potential, Hojgaard is blessed with the power and precision to destroy Royal Greens. Jon Rahm will be licking his lips at the prospect of teeing up in Arizona this week and the world No 2 can be fancied to upstage Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy.

Rahm has Phoenix Open form figures of and the Scottsdale resident knows the course like the back of his hand. Sepp Straka is one of the most promising maidens on the PGA Tour and the Austrian youngster further advertised his credentials on Sunday by outscoring everyone in the Farmers Insurance Open field. A Sunday 65 from Straka at Torrey Pines South should give him great confidence for the Phoenix Open and he could contend at enormous odds.

Rahm is not the only local resident looking forward to employing course knowledge to good effect this week. Matt Jones is a Scottsdale-based year-old who could make waves in the top Rest of the World player market. Jones, 11th in the Sony Open last month, is a two-time Australian Open champion who may have been dismissed too easily by bookmakers. Underage gambling is an offence. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford. For gambling addiction help and support, please contact the National Gambling Helpline on or via the NetLine.

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Open Championship WinnerView all odds. Dustin Johnson10/1. Rory McIlroy11/1. Jon Rahm12/1. Brooks Koepka16/1. Golf betting from Oddschecker. Get the best golf odds pre-tournament and in-play​, with expert tips and stats, plus Australian Open When does it start? AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am · US Masters · US Open · Open Championship · Major Specials · Show All Competitions.